Yesterday’s Republican victories in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races have to be a blow to the administration. While I don’t think the results were a referendum on Obama I do think they were a referendum on Obamaism, a certain rejection of his radical overhaul of health care and energy. The size of the McDonnell victory in Virginia (18%) was too big, virtually unprecedented, to blame the loss simply on a bad Democratic candidate, not in a state that Obama carried by 6% last year. Likewise New Jersey, which Obama carried a year ago by 14% and which Christie won by 5%. While the Democrats would like to blame the defeat on a failed, unpopular governor, take into account that Jersey is one of the most liberal states in the country and Christie achieved his margin with a third-party candidate peeling some votes away from him. It appears that 20-25% of the electorate switched last night. People are onto the Obama agenda and they don’t like it. remains personally popular with the American people (though not nearly as popular as he once was) they don’t like his policies. And the New Jersey result shows that his popularity doesn’t rub off. Obama campaigned with Corzine five times over the past few weeks, to no affect. And here’s the biggest reason why this is a blow to the administration. The so-called Blue Dog Democrats, those representatives and Senators who won last year in districts or states that John McCain carried, all have a wet finger to the wind, taking notice of last night’s results. They’ll be even more reluctant than previously to cast votes for unpopular programs that may cost them their seats. Passing Obamacare just got harder.
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