Now we're down to three. Fred is out and Huck is as good as out. Ron Paul is still in but he never had a chance. So the choice for Republicans is between McCain, Romney, or Giuliani. If you vote in Florida and want to stop McCain, is it a better bet to vote for Mitt or Rudy? I've already told you I think Rudy should be the guy - a win in Florida galvanizes his campaign and probably spurs him on to win the big states on Super Tuesday. He'd come out of Super Tuesday with momentum. Others think Mitt, who's been more competitive with McCain so far. The theory goes that a Mitt win in Florida would kill any chance Rudy has and would set Super Tuesday up as a contest between Romney and McCain. Conservatives would then have an unambiguous choice and would probably coalesce to spur Romney to victory.
Of course, if McCain wins Florida, it's probably over. I think he can win the general against either Hillary or Barack, but considering his stance on taxes, global warming, free speech, and the probability that he'd appoint activist judges (the type that would uphold McCain-Feingold), will it be worth it? I've said that thought Huckabee getting the nomination would signify the end of the Reagan coalition. I don't think that's the case with McCain. If elected it will probably be in spite of his positions. People, justifiably, simply like his story. He'll get elected because of his biography, and because of opposition to Hillary (if she's the Dems nominee). But a McCain who governed like I think he will - that could do tremendous harm to conservatism.
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