The Anti-Palinites

In regards to the Palin pick, Krauthammer doesn't like it, Frum doesn't like it, the Powerline guys don't like it, Heather Mac Donald doesn't like it. They aren't the only conservatives to express concern over Palin but they represent some of the main arguments against her selection. They are also some of the smartest people on the planet so their concerns deserve to be taken seriously.

Let's take them in order. The Krauthammer and Frum concern has to do with the election. The Palin pick, according to Krauthammer, "undercut[s] the remarkably successful 'Is [Obama] ready to lead' line of attack" which has worked so well for McCain thus far. Frum believes it will allow the Obama campaign to push the theme "that it's John McCain for all his white hair who represents the risky choice, while it is Barack Obama who offers cautious, steady, predictable governance."

The Powerline argument against Palin has more to do with governance post-election. Over a series of posts they express concern that she is seriously lacking in experience. "I'm very disappointed that John McCain would put someone as inexperienced and lacking in foreign policy and national security background as Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency," says Paul Mirengoff. There is a legitimate concern out there that if something happens to John McCain early on, the presidency would be turned over to someone with little to no foreign policy and national security experience. (UPDATE: Actually, rereading the Powerline posts now, while all three of them Powerline guys express concern over Palin, it seems that the post-governance argument is only made in Paul Mirengoff's original post. But I have read many arguments against her based on her lack of experience if something were to happen to McCain, so it's out there. Still, in the interest of accuracy, let's call it the post-election governance argument rather than the Powerline argument.)

Ms. Mac Donald's argument against Palin is that it brings identity politics, which conservatives normally loathe, to Republican presidential contests forevermore: "[F]rom now on, any presidential ticket that consists solely of white males—no matter their qualifications—will likely be dead in the water." She also states that, "Has...Sarah Palin...been named Stanley, she would have had exactly zero chance of ending up in the Oval Office in the next four years."

Others have dealt with the first two issues and both support and refutations to them are easily found if you're interested (scroll through the past few days of posts over at The Corner or check out The Weekly Standard site, including Bill Kristol's column, if you're interested). I think there are good arguments on both sides. But it is Heather Mac Donald's argument that I want to address this morning.

I need to state right off the bat that I love Heather Mac Donald. Her writing in City Journal has helped make it the finest magazine in America. She is right almost always and if I were president she'd be my Secretary of Homeland Defense (based on her qualifications, not her gender.)

That said, I don't think that Sarah Palin can be seen as a pure diversity pick. Yes, it is true that the hypothetical governor Stanley Palin, with the same qualifications as Sarah Palin, probably would not have been picked for the VP slot. But a governor Stanley Palin of Alaska who had been governor for, say, six years, following a House or Senate stint where he dealt effectively with some foreign policy and security issues. may have been. That Stanley Palin, with the same expertise on the drilling issue as Sarah Palin, who had fought corruption within his own party and won, as Sarah Palin has done, who was as strong a pro-lifer as Sarah Palin is, who was as genuine and refreshing as Sarah Palin is, would certainly have had a shot at the VP slot. I agree that given her lack of experience, her being a woman probably tipped the scales in her direction. But her gender was not the sole reason for her being picked. She has obvious advantages to the ticket in other areas and some clear expertise on critical issues of the day that made her eligible in the first place. If she did not have those advantages and expertise, the fact that she is a woman would have mattered not at all. She would never have been considered.

But perceptions mean a lot and it's true that many will see her as a pure diversity play, selected solely to grab the Hillary voters and other women. But there appears to be much more to Sarah Palin than the fact that she's a woman. It's now up to her to go perform and show America that her abilities are up to the job and her judgement can be trusted. If she performs the way we all hope, she can reinforce the conservative belief that people should be judged on their merits, regardless of race or gender. It could play out to have the opposite effect than the one Ms. Mac Donald worries about. A perfect scenario would emphasize to all that while she may be a woman, she'd better be good if she expects to play the game at this level.